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Some thoughts

We focus exclusively on base Catan with 4 players, and we’ll use “2 resources” or “2 income” to denote an expected resource income of 2 every 4 turns, referred to as the “next round.”

  • Discard probabilities are high. Holding 8 resources by turn end implies a ≈50% chance you will discard next round, you should trade if that’s the case.

With a starter 2-income setup, the discard probability is ≈25% with 7 cards in hand and ≈10% with 6 cards in hand–You’re expected to lose 2 and 1 cards, respectively, by the next round. Trading 4:1 for a resource you don’t naturally produce mitigates this risk.

With a mid-game 4 income setup, the discard probability is ≈30% with 7 cards, ≈20% with 6 cards and ≈10% with 5 cards. Trading early is advisable if you have 6 cards or more.

  • Robbing is powerful. It steals 1 resource and usually blocks 0.5 income per round on a 6 or 8 tile or more, ceasing 30-70% of a player’s income.

  • To gauge income quickly, note that a settlement next to a 6 or 8 tile yields approx. 0.5 income, while 9 dots corresponds to 1 income per round.